2025 Sweet Sixteen Preview - Matchups, Headlines, Predictions

March is finally here, and it honestly could not have come at a better time. Society has been starved for good sports after the Eagles demolished the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and the NBA, despite its fair share of major moments, really only takes the crown come playoff time. March Madness will always be exciting for the upsets and the major storylines that develop from it, with the last 2 years being some of the best tournaments in recent memory. This year, Duke and Florida take the spots the favorites to win the title, but after a Cooper Flagg injury during the ACC tournament and an early scare for Florida against UCONN, there remains some question about both teams.

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In all honesty, this year has lacked some of the hooks that previous years have held, primarily due to the overall fact that there have been almost zero upsets thus far outside of the St. Johns vs. Arkansas one, which involved one of the most talented 10 seeds on paper in recent memory. All that being said, that usually leaves room for more exciting sweet sixteen and elite eight matchups between juggernaut programs for the second weekend. So far, the teams that have looked the strongest overall are Duke and Auburn, but their flaws have shown and points and both have yet to match up with any "real" contenders for the title. All that being said, lets take a look at each matchup.

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Auburn vs. Michigan:

Auburn has looked like the best team in the country by far at times and at others like a first round upset. Luckily, they made it this far so they are definitely not a first round upset. All that being said, the team as a whole seems to be incredibly weak in 2 areas: turnovers and free throw shooting. Turnovers matter, but if your team can force more than you make like Auburn can, it is usually not a major issue. On the other hand, free throw shooting is absolutely a massive weak point that teams will exploit in the clutch especially. Dusty May's Michigan has been one of the best clutch teams in the past few weeks, and if this game comes down to its last few minutes, Michigan is gonna take over. For that reason, I take them in this matchup.

Grant's Choice:  Michigan​​​​

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Ole Miss vs. Michigan State:

This is a very strange matchup to me. I'm gonna be honest, I had neither of these teams making it this far. I did not expect MSU to beat New Mexico and I did not expect Ole Miss to make it past the first round, so this might not be the best game for me to judge overall. Ole Miss's three point shooting has been off the charts, and it will be up to Michigan State to shut that down, which they have been good at the entire season ranking top 10 in opponent 3 point %. The key for Ole Miss is going to be all offensive based. The Spartans will get open threes but whether they hit them is going to be all up to chance, as their 3 point shooting is so inconsistent overall. In this scenario, Michigan State seems more practical to choose, but I would not at all put it past Ole Miss to have a hot shooting night again and take down the #2 seeded Spartans.​

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Grant's Choice:  Michigan State

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Florida vs. Maryland:

This is an easy one -- Maryland has looked strong at times coming into the tournament, but they just cannot get it done in the clutch of so many games. Yes, they just hit a game winner against Colorado State (that was clearly a travel), but their defense consistently collapses under pressure in clutch situations. Putting them up against a powerhouse like Florida should be relatively easy work for the Gators, and I predict this will have the largest spread of the 8 games.​

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Grant's Choice:  Florida

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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas:

This will either be a close game or an absolute blowout. Calipari's Arkansas has really looked in a strong form lately, with great wins over both Kansas and St. Johns. Whether they will matchup well against a team with very strong, quality wins, that also has one of the best players in the nation with JT Toppin, remains to be seen. Arkansas ranks the lowest in Kenpom out of all the teams remaining in the country at 36th, with the next lowest being BYU at 23rd. By all metrics, Arkansas is a step below Texas Tech, but they have not played like that at all the last 2 games and even within the SEC tournament, so don't put it past them to pull off the upset and keep their "Cinderella" run going. That being said, Texas Tech has adjusted well after a poor round 1 performance and they made quick work of Drake during the second round. Tech is the pick here.​​

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Grant's Choice:  Texas Tech​​​​​​

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Duke vs. Arizona:

This is going to be one of those matchups where Arizona either wins/loses in a nail biter or gets blown out completely. My pick is that this will be the former of the 2. Arizona is an anomaly this year in that they have beaten great teams and lost to terrible teams. A "steal from the rich and give to the poor" or "Robin Hood" team, if you will. They have lost to Duke earlier in the season, but since then they have beaten Iowa State, Texas Tech TWICE, and they have played Houston very close. They are simply a different team than they were earlier in the season, and at the end of the day, Caleb Love is the Duke Killer no matter what the fans may say. Cooper Flagg has started looking like himself again, and despite all the metrics suggesting that Duke has little to no weaknesses with their efficient offense and top 5 defense (as well as ranking 1 in Kenpom), there is just this gut feeling that Arizona will have what it takes here. However, that same gut feeling has put my 60th out of 68th in my school bracket so I pick Duke here.

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Grant's Choice:  Duke​

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BYU vs. Alabama:

BYU is on a hot streak right now, and an in-tournament run was expected by most people watching closely. Some comparisons have been made to NC State last year, but NC State just sort of had a different vibe to them where it felt like they were destined to make a run. BYU meanwhile, has started running out of magic. They barely made it past Wisconsin, but now playing against Alabama, whether they will be a good enough team to take them out is an entirely different story. To be fair, Mark Sears has not looked like himself these past 2 games and Alabama has still walked out with victories each team, albeit close ones with....Robert Morris? Where even is Robert Morris? Whatever, point is Alabama is an enigma thus far, as in one second they will be losing to Robert Morris with 6 minutes left and in the next they will be hitting game-winners against Auburn and dog-walking Saint Mary's. Historically, those have been the teams to make the title game and then lose, so they'll probably win this one.​

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Grant's Choice:  Alabama

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Houston vs. Purdue:

Same old Houston. Every year they look like they will finally break through and make it to a final four only to get out in the sweet sixteen. This is a weird year for that though, as Purdue looks like the weakest 4 seed in the past 5 years as well. Purdue just lacks any x-factor to put them head-and-shoulders above the competition, but yet they have made it to the sweet sixteen this year thanks to matching up with 12 seeded McNeese in the second round. Gotta give them credit for getting the job done I suppose. Houston still has their strong defense and can make clutch plays on that end, but their weakness has been the fact that their offense just stagnates too often near the end of games. It's like they play prevent, but in basketball form. To put a team away they need to score the basketball and stop the other team from scoring, not do one or the other. However, they are clearly the better of these two teams, and Houston will be my choice to make the elite eight.​

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Grant's Choice:  Houston

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Kentucky vs. Tennessee:

Our final matchup to talk about. To be honest, I never believed in Kentucky going into this tournament. They came across the same way Arizona did, but at least Arizona had been on somewhat of a hot streak going into March, meanwhile Kentucky has been on somewhat of a decline the past month or so. But after that Illinois game, I am a Mark Pope believer and a Kentucky believer. The offense did not at all stagnate like it has with so many teams with a lead this tournament, and Kentucky kept their foot on the gas pedal the entire way through. Whether that will work against a team like Tennessee, however, is going to be a challenge, with Tennessee coming in as one of the best teams in the country and better than Kentucky on paper by a decent margin. Tennesee ranks as one of the best in the nation in opponent fg%, 3p%, steals, and Kenpom. Tennessee has beaten Kentucky earlier this season as well, which makes them especially strong given the fact they are proven against teams like Kentucky. This is going to be a close game, but in the end its going to come down to Kentucky's offensive capability, especially at the 3 point line. Tennessee has simply been shutting teams down on that too much for me not to pick them.

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Grant's Choice:  Tennessee